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Notes from
the trading desk.
Playbooks, post-mortems, cycle reviews and stat-driven takes — written by traders who actually trade, for traders who want to stop being exit liquidity.
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FOMC week playbook — sizing, news lockouts, and the 16:15 trap
Every FOMC week kills more accounts than the rest of the month combined. Here's the exact lockout rule we use and why news traders always lose to news avoiders.
How to read a fair value gap properly
Most retail traders see FVGs everywhere. The ones that actually fill have three signatures — time, volume, and the prior structure. We break down 12 from this week.
The NQ overnight gap statistic nobody talks about
67% of NQ overnight gaps fill within 90 minutes of US open. We backtested 5 years. Here's the rule and the 33% counter-example.
What 2,412 OMNI traders did wrong in April
We pulled anonymized journals from members who blew up last month. Same 4 patterns. Same 4 fixes. Read it before May becomes another April.
Why your stop loss is too tight (and your size is too big)
If your stops keep getting hit by random noise, the problem isn't your entry. It's that you sized to fit emotional comfort, not market structure.
Reading on-chain like a chart — 4 metrics that matter
MVRV. Exchange inflows. SOPR. LTH supply. Four numbers, one chart, all the macro signal you need for crypto. No PhD required.
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